Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Earnings of key companies--Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Cairn India, and HDFC Bank--for the quarter ended March will give direction to share indices next week. Investor sentiment and the bias for equities remains positive after benchmark indices ended at a three-month high last week,

Technically, The Nifty 50 may test the psychological level of 8000 points, if it crosses its immediate resistance of 7920 points. Last trading day, hope of a good monsoon and benign inflation lifted the index up 141.50 points or 1.8% to 7850.45, its highest level since Jan 1.

The 50-stock index breached its 50-day exponential moving average of 7770 points wednesday, and now finds support at that level. On Monday, global markets would be an important factor for equities as investors come back after an extended weekend on account of Ambedkar Jayanti on Thursday and Ram Navami on Friday.

RESULTS EYED

The information technology giant is likely to report a 3% sequential rise in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to 35.5 bln rupees. Other IT majors—Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro--will report their earnings on Monday and Apr 20, respectively.

TCS is seen reporting a 3% sequential growth in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to
62.87 bln rupees, boosted by foreign exchange gains and a 4% expansion in topline. Cairn India and HDFC Bank will report their earnings on Apr 22.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 18.Apr.2016 - 22.Apr.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016 (Subdued in shortened week; cos' earnings eyed)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Having lost 2% in the past five sessions, equities are set to remain subdued in the holiday-shortened week ahead in the run-up to the corporate earnings that will set the
tone for shares in the short- to medium-term.

Stock markets are closed on Thursday for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and the
next day for Ram Navami. We believe the upcoming earning season, which is scheduled to begin next week, will provide the needed trigger for directional move.

Market participants should continue with stock-specific trading approach but avoid
overleveraging. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the results for the quarter and
the year ended Mar 31 as the previous financial year has been a difficult one for corporate India.

Sluggish demand in domestic and international markets due to global economic slowdown, particularly in China, hit companies' topline and bottomline growth in 2015-
16 (Apr-Mar).

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 11.Apr.2016 - 15.Apr.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 4.Apr.2016 to 8.Mar.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.04.2016 RBI policy eyed next week; 25-bps rate cut seen

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


For the coming week, all eyes would be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, scheduled for Tuesday, before which indices are seen trading in a narrow range with a positive bias as investors maintain caution. Our base case (scenario is) that Governor Rajan cuts (interest rates by) 25 bps on Tuesday (and August) but signals a pause in June. A dovish scenario would be the RBI cutting key interest rates by 50 basis points and supporting more liquidity by reducing cash reserve ratio by 25 bps or increasing the open market operations. In our view, this (a dovish scenario) is a low probability event.

In the third situation, the sentiment may be weighed down by hawkish comments from RBI Governor
Raghuram Rajan, citing multiple risks to the RBI's 5% inflation target for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), such as a possible third El Nino year or a rebound in oil prices, or a probable rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in June that may weaken the rupee. We see this (the hawkish outlook) as an even lower probability event as high lending rates have pulled down growth to an estimated 4.6% in the December quarter in the old GDP series. Banks and other rate sensitive sectors--capital goods, infrastructure, automobiles, and real estate--are likely to be in focus on account of RBI's monetary policy.

The index yesterday ended 0.2% higher at 16174.90 points on hope of a 25-bps rate cut by the RBI. We believe markets have factored in a 25-bps rate cut and will rise if the RBI cuts rates by 50 bps. Domestic markets are also seen taking cues from global markets, where investors are grappling with fears of a slowdown in world economy and central banks' measures to ease monetary policy which are not seen having much effect. Domestic benchmark indices declined yesterday, tracking weakness in the global markets. Sentiment world over was hit as a reading of Tankan survey of manufacturers' sentiment by Bank of Japan for Jan-Mar halved on quarter, raising concerns that the central bank's negative interest rate policy was doing little for the country's growth. 

The Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.3% each at 7713.05 points and 25269.64 points, respectively. The automobile sector would also be in focus as many companies report their sales numbers for March. Post market hours yesterday, Tata Motors reported its total sales of 53,057 units, which were up just 1% on year. Stocks of Tata Motors ended down 1.8% at 379.65 rupees.

Among the defensives, pharmaceutical stocks are seen trading with a negative bias next week on account of regulatory concerns surrounding many companies.


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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 4.Apr.2016 - 8.Apr.2016


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