Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 9.May.2016 to 13.May.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus


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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 09.May.2016 to 13.May.2016 Seen up; key Jan-Mar earnings to be in focus

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Global markets are likely to dictate the trend for benchmark share indices next week, with the Jan-   Mar earnings of key companies likely to keep the action stock-specific. The underlying bias for equities is positive after the indices declined significantly this week. This week, the index declined 1.5% to 7733.45 points. Yesterday, the Nifty 50 ended flat in a volatile session, as investors cautiously awaited data on US non-farm payrolls for April. The S&P 500 futures extended losses and were down 0.5%, against 0.3% earlier, as lower additions of non-farm jobs stoked fear that the US economy may not be in the pink of health. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were also  down 0.5%.

In April, 160,000 non-farm jobs were added, lower than the 215,000 added in March. At 5.0%, the
unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous month. In India, market participants remain
positive about the economy, even while keeping an eye on weak global markets. The recent correction in equities has led investors to reallocate their portfolios, and they are going long on the banking sector. Market participants are also positive about the automobile sector, especially after most companies reported robust sales numbers for April.

EARNINGS WATCH

Corporate earnings for Jan-Mar will be a crucial factor for markets next week, with five Nifty 50
constituents--Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, Asian Paints, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Dr Reddy's Laboratories--reporting their earnings. Grasim Industries will report its earnings on Saturday. Index heavyweight Hindustan Unilever is expected to report a 1% fall in quarterly net profit at 10.1 bln rupees on Monday. Yesterday, the stock ended up 0.4% at 853.40 rupees. Stocks of Dr Reddy's Laboratories, which will report its earnings on Thursday, are seen trading with a negative bias. Yesterday, the stock ended down 2.2% at 2,866.30 rupees. Other companies reporting their Jan-Mar earnings next week are SRF, Apollo Tyres, Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, Havells India, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, and Nestle India.

( www.rupeedesk.in )
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 9.May.2016 - 13.May.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 18.Apr.2016 to 22.Apr.2016

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 ( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Earnings of key companies--Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, Cairn India, and HDFC Bank--for the quarter ended March will give direction to share indices next week. Investor sentiment and the bias for equities remains positive after benchmark indices ended at a three-month high last week,

Technically, The Nifty 50 may test the psychological level of 8000 points, if it crosses its immediate resistance of 7920 points. Last trading day, hope of a good monsoon and benign inflation lifted the index up 141.50 points or 1.8% to 7850.45, its highest level since Jan 1.

The 50-stock index breached its 50-day exponential moving average of 7770 points wednesday, and now finds support at that level. On Monday, global markets would be an important factor for equities as investors come back after an extended weekend on account of Ambedkar Jayanti on Thursday and Ram Navami on Friday.

RESULTS EYED

The information technology giant is likely to report a 3% sequential rise in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to 35.5 bln rupees. Other IT majors—Tata Consultancy Services and Wipro--will report their earnings on Monday and Apr 20, respectively.

TCS is seen reporting a 3% sequential growth in its Jan-Mar consolidated net profit to
62.87 bln rupees, boosted by foreign exchange gains and a 4% expansion in topline. Cairn India and HDFC Bank will report their earnings on Apr 22.

 ( www.rupeedesk.in )
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 18.Apr.2016 - 22.Apr.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 11.Apr.2016 to 15.Apr.2016 (Subdued in shortened week; cos' earnings eyed)

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 



Having lost 2% in the past five sessions, equities are set to remain subdued in the holiday-shortened week ahead in the run-up to the corporate earnings that will set the
tone for shares in the short- to medium-term.

Stock markets are closed on Thursday for Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti and the
next day for Ram Navami. We believe the upcoming earning season, which is scheduled to begin next week, will provide the needed trigger for directional move.

Market participants should continue with stock-specific trading approach but avoid
overleveraging. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the results for the quarter and
the year ended Mar 31 as the previous financial year has been a difficult one for corporate India.

Sluggish demand in domestic and international markets due to global economic slowdown, particularly in China, hit companies' topline and bottomline growth in 2015-
16 (Apr-Mar).

( www.rupeedesk.in ) 
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 11.Apr.2016 - 15.Apr.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 4.Apr.2016 to 8.Mar.2016

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 04 to 08.04.2016 RBI policy eyed next week; 25-bps rate cut seen

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


For the coming week, all eyes would be on the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy, scheduled for Tuesday, before which indices are seen trading in a narrow range with a positive bias as investors maintain caution. Our base case (scenario is) that Governor Rajan cuts (interest rates by) 25 bps on Tuesday (and August) but signals a pause in June. A dovish scenario would be the RBI cutting key interest rates by 50 basis points and supporting more liquidity by reducing cash reserve ratio by 25 bps or increasing the open market operations. In our view, this (a dovish scenario) is a low probability event.

In the third situation, the sentiment may be weighed down by hawkish comments from RBI Governor
Raghuram Rajan, citing multiple risks to the RBI's 5% inflation target for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), such as a possible third El Nino year or a rebound in oil prices, or a probable rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in June that may weaken the rupee. We see this (the hawkish outlook) as an even lower probability event as high lending rates have pulled down growth to an estimated 4.6% in the December quarter in the old GDP series. Banks and other rate sensitive sectors--capital goods, infrastructure, automobiles, and real estate--are likely to be in focus on account of RBI's monetary policy.

The index yesterday ended 0.2% higher at 16174.90 points on hope of a 25-bps rate cut by the RBI. We believe markets have factored in a 25-bps rate cut and will rise if the RBI cuts rates by 50 bps. Domestic markets are also seen taking cues from global markets, where investors are grappling with fears of a slowdown in world economy and central banks' measures to ease monetary policy which are not seen having much effect. Domestic benchmark indices declined yesterday, tracking weakness in the global markets. Sentiment world over was hit as a reading of Tankan survey of manufacturers' sentiment by Bank of Japan for Jan-Mar halved on quarter, raising concerns that the central bank's negative interest rate policy was doing little for the country's growth. 

The Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex ended down 0.3% each at 7713.05 points and 25269.64 points, respectively. The automobile sector would also be in focus as many companies report their sales numbers for March. Post market hours yesterday, Tata Motors reported its total sales of 53,057 units, which were up just 1% on year. Stocks of Tata Motors ended down 1.8% at 379.65 rupees.

Among the defensives, pharmaceutical stocks are seen trading with a negative bias next week on account of regulatory concerns surrounding many companies.


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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 4.Apr.2016 - 8.Apr.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 21.Mar.2016 to 25.Mar.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 21.Mar.2016 to 25.Mar.2016 Seen firm in truncated week; Nifty 50 eyes 7700

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 

Share indices are likely to continue the up move in a truncated upcoming week, and market
participants expect National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 to test 7700 points after it topped a two-month high yesterday.

Next week, Nifty 50 is seen facing resistance at 7600 points, and a breach of this level would begin the start of a new bull market. Yesterday, Nifty 50 ended at 7604.35, up 91.80 points or 1.2% from the previous close. This week, the index has ended 1.2% higher. S&P BSE's Sensex gained 275.37 points or 1.1% to end at 24952.74.

Foreign institutional investors yesterday net bought Indian equities worth 17.13 bln rupees. The
continuous inflow of foreign funds and pick up in the Chinese market has created a positive sentiment in the market. FIIs have been net buyers of Indian shares for the last three consecutive sessions. Markets will remain shutting for Holi on Thursday, and for Good Friday.

IN-FOCUS STOCKS

The stocks in Pharma (pharmaceutical) sector are witnessing continuous fear from the US FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) division for violation in the best manufacturing practices. This has resulted into reasonable valuations in the entire sector throwing value-based buying opportunities for the long term investors. Yesterday, the stock hit a 52-week low to end at 1,554.40 rupees. Banks are likely to gain next week on expectation of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India before its next monetary policy meet in April.

Cement stocks are expected to gain further, due to positive sentiment for the sector, as prices have shown an uptick after a few subdued quarters. Analysts are also upbeat on the sector's performance, as they expect earnings to recover over 2016-18 (Apr-Mar) on volume growth and price stability. Stocks of Welspun India will be in focus, as the Maharashtra government levied value added tax of 5.5% on terry towels in its Budget, yesterday. Marico's shares will also be eyed as the state government increased value added tax on up to 500 ml coconut hair oil pack to 12.5%.
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 29.Feb.2016 - 4.Mar.2016


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Indian Market Weekly Outlook & Sectorwise Stocks Outlook for the Week - 22.Feb.2016 to 26.Feb.2016

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Indian Markets Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.02.2016 Budget will set the trend for equities next week

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( www.rupeedesk.in ) 


Expiry of the February derivatives series, the Budget session of
Parliament and the tone of the Railway Budget will set the trend for
equities next week. The underlying bias will remain positive in the run-up
to the Union Budget for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), particularly as market
participants keenly watch the Budget session, which starts Tuesday, for
the passage of the Goods and Services Tax Bill.

Apart from GST, the passage of the Bankruptcy Code and Rail Regulator
Bill may be a positive surprise for the market. The last few sessions were
complete washouts and meaningful action in Parliament could be a
welcome surprise for the markets.

Thursday, the Railway Budget and the expiry of the February futures and
options series will be in focus. Expiry of the current derivatives series is
expected to keep action volatile, particularly on Thursday, as positions
would be rolled over to the March derivatives series for the Budget.

Even though the impact of the Railway Budget is seen largely limited to
stocks of companies linked to railway sector. The Union Budget, to be
detailed on Feb 29, is expected to focus on fiscal consolidation, spending
on infrastructure, rural India, and reforms for public sector banks.

For the week ahead, Nifty 50 is seen rising up to 7350-7400 points,
implying an upside of 2-3% from current levels. This week, indices have
ended with over 3% gains each.

Nifty 50 ended at 7210.75, up 19.00 points or 0.3% from the
previous close, while Sensex ended at 23709.15, up 59.93 points or 0.2%
from Thursday. The India VIX or volatility index ended down 2.6% at
20.9150.

Short covering ahead of the Union Budget later in the month helped
indices recoup intraday losses, to end marginally in the green.
Open interest in Nifty 50 February fell nearly 5% to 20.55 mln, and the
contract ended at a premium of 1.7 points to the spot index, as compared
to a discount in the previous session
( www.rupeedesk.in )
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FREE INTERNATIONAL FOREX & COMMODITY WEEKLY LEVELS WITH LIVE TREND UPDATION: 22.Feb.2016 - 26.Feb.2016


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